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May 17, 2013

Parallels in Internet history

April 1999: Yahoo! buys GeoCities.

"A $3.6 billion deal that will further solidify Yahoo!'s position as a frontrunner in the online popularity contest. ...

"GeoCities (GCTY) is the third most visited site on the Web behind AOL and Yahoo!, with 19 million unique visitors in December, according to Web research company Media Metrix.

"GeoCities sets up communities of people who share similar interests and allows customers to create their own home page on the Internet.

"A deal would likely propel Yahoo! to the top rated site in terms of traffic, but it's not clear how much the two sites' individual audience overlap. ...

"Through GeoCities, Yahoo! will be able to distribute a range of editing tools and content published through personal homepages in an array of services. ..."

May 2013: Will Yahoo Try to Get Its "Cool Again" by Doing a Deal for Tumblr?

"CFO Ken Goldman ... said Yahoo needed to be 'cool again.' ...

"Tumblr ... focuses heavily on user-generated content, largely text and photos, although there is an increasing use of video on the site. ...

"Any kind of deal with Tumblr could certainly bring Yahoo a big, young audience. Its worldwide traffic was at 117 million visitors in April, according to comScore. On its home page, Tumblr claims it has 107.8 million blogs and 50.6 billion posts."

At the time of its acquisition, GeoCities posted a net loss for the year of $19.8 million alongside a $2.3 billion pre-Yahoo market cap. Tumblr generated $13 million in revenue last year and has a reported valuation of $800 million.

May 16, 2013

Timely Demise: Where are they now?

A friend recently discovered and fell in love with Timely Demise, my chronicle of the compression of American retailing in the last recession. I hadn't really looked at the site since it closed, and as I started poking through the archives, I got curious about the final outcomes of the activities we tracked in the moment.

Researching the bankruptcies and acquisitions chronicled in the blog, I was able to get concrete updates on 40 of the larger entities. Here's how they wound up:

  • Eighteen of them (45%) are gone, either through Chapter 7 liquidations or just closing up shop. Extrapolated across the hundreds of companies we covered, this percentage would undoubtedly be higher, given the amount of smaller brands and mom-and-pop stores we wrote about.
  • Seven (18%) were acquired and continue operating, including individual brands (Stila, J. Jill), retail brands (Crabtree & Evelyn) and multi-store chains (Better Bedding).
  • Four firms continued operating but encountered more trouble after their appearances in Timely Demise, including Fortunoff (which ended up closing all its stores, then reopening a few more targeted stores) and Reader's Digest (which has returned to bankruptcy but continues to publish).
  • Now to the good news. Five companies emerged cleanly from bankruptcy and continue operations.
  • Four firms shrunk but are still in business in some form.
  • And four firms we wrote about look as though it's business as usual for them, having weathered the recession and resumed their growth trajectories in recent years, some with admirable results. La-Z-Boy, we recline in a toast to you.

January 2, 2013

How industry consolidation affects you: rental cars

Renting a car? These are the major options by brand name:

Enterprise
National
Hertz
Alamo
Avis
Budget
Thrifty
Dollar
Zipcar

But this is the corporate landscape, pending FTC approval of two recent deals:

Hertz Global Holdings (Hertz, Thrifty, Dollar)
Avis Budget Group (Avis, Budget, Zipcar)
Enterprise Holdings (Enterprise, Alamo, National)

Nine brands, three car companies. Remember that next time you try threatening the guy at the airport that you'll walk over to the next counter.

This is the first in a series of summaries of industries whose corporate consolidation has led to a small number of players controlling the majority of the market, creating oligopolies in the mass market.

March 28, 2012

Words I learned today

A Veblen good is a product whose demand curve shifts in proportion to its expense. The more it costs, the more desirable it becomes, such as the Hermes Birkin Bag, on which you can spend $124,750 (well, in theory you could).

A Giffen good is a product whose consumption increases as costs increase, defying typical supply-and-demand curves. Giffen goods are inferior goods whose demand disregards quality.

(Via the wonderful Felix Salmon, who actually used the latter term incorrectly--my Prada shoes are Veblen, not Giffen, goods, although I find them most desirable at 60% off.)

March 14, 2012

The shifting media landscape

Few visualizations of the transition from old media to new media (to which I've long been contributing, as both a digital media veteran and a reader) are as stark as the sales trend of the Encyclopaedia Brittanica, which ceased print publishing this week (edited for clarity):

Sales of the Britannica peaked in 1990, when 120,000 sets were sold in the United States. ... Only 8,000 sets of the 2010 edition have been sold, and the remaining 4,000 have been stored in a warehouse until they are bought. ... Now print encyclopedias account for less than 1 percent of the Britannica's revenue.

Brittanica's been in print for 244 years. (It has the New York Times and The Economist beat by nearly a century.) But in a relatively brief 22 year span, the print encyclopedia's distribution dropped by 93% and the share of the publisher's revenue from those books dropped by 99%.

I continue to read many publications in print form, atop the multitude of web pages I consume. But I suspect it won't be long before my only practical reading option is a tablet.

February 28, 2012

Something new

I am excited to announce that I have joined Proof Integrated Communications as Chief Strategy Officer, effective yesterday. I am a managing director at parent company Burson-Marsteller as well.

It's a compelling next step in my career, as I'm charged with defining a variety of roles in an environment much different than the autonomous, scrappy startup I'd built at Canopy. From business development to corporate strategy, internal evangelism to organizational details, I'm going to have my hands in a lot of things, working with 70 colleagues in three offices to build upon their successes to date.

I leave behind a bustling agency in Canopy that has become a trusted destination for ecommerce and user experience projects, and an expanded Alexander Interactive that just moved its award-winning organization (and the Canopy team) to huge new digs on my last day at work.

Departing a nice environment is always strange, especially after four years of collaborative, impactful project work. But having successfully built something new for Ai--twice--I am ready for another set of challenges, starting with the ping-pong table directly outside my office. All in a day's work.

November 15, 2011

Trends versus perspective

November 2: Syms and Filene's Basement file for bankruptcy.

Company CEO Marcy Syms said in statement the two discount chains were burdened by increasing competition from department stores offering the same brands at similar discounts and by a rising number of private label discounters. She also said there was less overstock for her company to buy as businesses continue to manage their inventory carefully during the tough economy.
September 22: Century 21 opens a 60,000 square foot store on the Upper West Side.
"The expansion is giving another area of the city a chance for everyone to look good all the time," said Director of Organizational Effectiveness Boyd Howell. ... "Brand-driven guests can come in and find their brand instead of having to dig through hoping they'll find something."

November 1, 2011

Shhh. Don't let my customers hear that

"The thing you do with [reports of studies] is just ride them out, and literally we see no impact on our business."
--GNC CEO Joseph Fortunato, reacting to reports that the health pills he sells aren't healthy after all, October 25 (via Brandsinger)

September 20, 2011

What I learned today, September 20

McDonald's currently commands 49.5 percent of the fast-food burger market in the U.S. Burger King and Wendy's combined grab 26%. The burger wars of a generation ago have largely been won, Shake Shack notwithstanding.

This evolution, by the way, is not unlike what has happened in the cola market, where Coca-Cola possesses nearly twice the market share of Pepsi-Cola, 17% to 9.5%. Pepsi has actually dropped to third place, behind Diet Coke at 9.9%.

Addendum, October 5: the same thing is happening with beer, where #1 seller Bud Light outsells #2 Budweiser by better than a 2-to-1 margin, 19.1% to 8.7%.

August 25, 2011

Steve Jobs

I am enough of a traditionalist that I still gauge the importance of news by its placement on the front page of the printed New York Times. (I still get a copy on my doorstep every morning.) So it was not lost on me that the lead in today's paper was Steve Jobs' decision to step down as CEO of Apple.

CEO transitions are often news, but not front page news, much less the story that carries the day. (As of this writing the story has already become a secondary item on nytimes.com, making the print edition the final record of the day's priorities.) Such is the impact and presence of the genius behind one of history's most remarkable companies.

While the Times is my guide, I first learned of Jobs' decision last night--on my iPhone. I could run down a list of Apple devices I've used in the last seven days alone but to do so would be almost too obvious. Jobs' vision has transformed how we consider, use and appreciate technology, all for the better.

I've enjoyed Apple products since the days of the ][e. I look forward to many years of continued innovation and successes by the company. Today, like the rest of the world, I tip my cap to Steve, in thanks and in admiration.

December 16, 2010

Follow-up: Duane Reade Flex Rewards

So I was right about one thing when I wrote about Duane Reade's new flex rewards program in January:

Ten bucks a year is below my worth-the-trouble threshold, so I'm basically done with the rewards card. I wonder how much less I'll look to DR as my default convenience store as a result.

Sure enough, I never did activate a new loyalty card. And now, between the changing system and DR's buyout by Walgreens, I find myself without loyalty to the store in general. Instead, I find myself stopping in the new CVS that opened a block away (closer to my apartment!) instead... and I've never enjoyed CVS.

Duane Reade may be making a few more bucks--or, rather, saving them--but I wonder how many of their customers have done the same thing as me.

October 29, 2010

data.mint.com

I just lost a good chunk of my morning to Mint Data, the newly revealed spending database from Mint. Peering into consumer habits is fascinating, but to my retail mind, the store comparisons are the best part.

Of course, Mint's data is heavily skewed by its demographic. None of the lunching ladies and hedge-fund millionaires are using Mint, so we're not seeing four-figure steakhouse spends or Madison Avenue purchases in the database.

Still, it's great fun to compare things like this:

Barneys New York average purchase: $401.11
Saks: $293.76
Bergdorf Goodman: $369.45
Prada: $639.87

If you need me, I'm over here, swimiming in data.

October 21, 2010

Any color, so long as it's black

HP Slate photo gallery.

The real question to me is, how come Apple's pursuers not only rip off the interfaces and concepts but also blatantly copy the exteriors? Black bezel, chrome rim--is there no other way for a tablet device to look than exactly like an iPad, albeit with a back panel full of Citgo logos?

Every touch phone in the market rips off the iPhone's visuals, too. It's not like Apple's products are always handsome, either. I actually think the iPhone 3G and 3GS weren't all that attractive. But the competitive market seems to think the only way to keep up with Apple products is to look like them. Even Microsoft's Zune ripped off the iPod's single round button for navigation.

Here's a hint, product teams: these tactics may get you some sales, especially if you're filling a market need, like offering buckets of iPhone-looking devices on Verizon's as-yet iPhone-less network. But they won't get you industry recognition. Or long-term market growth. Or the respect of discerning, taste-making consumers, who generally know the difference.

September 29, 2010

Answering opportunity's knock

In my three years at Alexander Interactive, we've taken a boutique ecommerce firm with a diverse client roster and grown it into a user experience powerhouse with an incredible lineup of engagements. The company that helped grow great sites like Action Envelope became rich with brand names: Schwinn. Citi. Kaplan. Even the good folks at Internet Retailer, the paper of record for the ecommerce industry, chose Ai to redesign their website.

This has led to substantial changes within the agency, starting with my own hire to build a strategy discipline, and progressing through evolutions that include engagement management and a lot of short-term travel. On that list was a bit of a disappointment: smaller inquiries became a lot less tenable. It became clear to us that the mom-and-pop or luxury-brand assignment that was perfect for Ai in 2007 was becoming obsolete in the Ai of 2010, despite our long-held belief that those projects are just as fun and fascinating, just as successful and profitable.

So, rather than forgoing those projects, or shoehorning them into the Ai engagement model, we decided to spin them out. We discussed it internally for months, kicked off informally in the spring, and on July 1 I took the keys to a then-unnamed second business unit at Ai. Over the summer we worked on our positioning and materials, and the news officially hit the digital community this week: Canopy is open for business.

I'm thrilled to be heading up Canopy and establishing a sister company for one of the industry's great ecommerce shops. We know the Ai approach--hands on, user-focused, client-partnership--works just as well for a small retailer as it does for a large one. Our goal is to bring our expertise to multiple market segments.

I am still wearing my Director of Strategy hat for Ai part-time, which makes for interesting days, as I sometimes segue from an on-site visit with a Fortune 50 retailer to a phone call with the owner of a small fashion label. But the opportunity to take that enterprise-level knowledge and experience and apply those concepts directly to small- and midsize businesses is rare. Not many Canopy competitors can claim the same breadth of knowledge. That's what led Ai to start this agency, and what excites me most about building it. The companies I speak with can't wait to learn and grow. And that's why we're here.

July 16, 2010

Apple to iPhone 4 critics: 'shut the fuck up'

That's the gist of Steve Jobs's hastily arranged and moderately defensive iPhone press conference today discussing the antenna-finger-reception issue.

There's nothing press-conference-worthy about the issue, really, other than the fuss that's being made. Apple felt the need to respond to its critics, which, I suspect, has more than a little to do with Consumer Reports' product damnation earlier this week. Stodgy as it may seem, CU wields a lot of influence, as evidenced by its recent safety warning on the Lexus GX460, which forced Toyota to immediately suspend its sales. (Disclosure: I am a consumerreports.com subscriber.)

Apple's sales are a combination of its near-flawless execution and the halo of respect and admiration the company receives for its products. With the iPhone 4, Apple wound up with a) a tangibly flawed product, whether it wants to admit it or not, however minor it may be; and b) the potential loss of some of that all-important respect and admiration. Apple had to try and remind people of its general excellence and plug the hole in the proverbial dyke.

Let's analyze the specifics of the "solution," then, which has been cited as potentially costing the company hundreds of millions of dollars. Apple will give away free bumpers to all its iPhone 4 customers. This has an opportunity cost of $87 million, given Apple's $29 price point versus the three million phones already sold.

Seriously, though: that bumper's $29 ask is laughable. It's a molded plastic ring. A lay consumer can buy full-size iPhone cases for $1.50 for as few as 30 pieces in bulk. What do you think Apple's wholesale cost is for three million, sourced directly from the manufacturer? Thirty cents? Maybe less?

At $0.30 per case, Apple's big giveaway will cost the company $900,000 for the first three million, plus overhead. Given that Apple has brought in at least $600 million in revenue (probably a lot more) on those three million iPhone 4s, nine hundred grand seems like a pretty painless repair. (As an Apple shareholder, I should note that this pleases me.)

The iPhone 4 remains an incredible product, and Apple a remarkable company. Today's press conference didn't really change things one way or the other. Their hope is that with their case-and-refund announcement in place, the issue will quiet down, and people will feel good about buying and using the iPhone 4. We'll see if it works.

June 21, 2010

What I learned today, June 21

Father's Day is the third-best-selling "Hallmark Holiday," with 93 million cards changing hands at a cost of $749 million. It trails Valentine's Day (152 million cards) and Mother's Day (141 million) in volume. All three combined are dwarfed by Christmas, which generates 1.8 billion card sales each year.

June 3, 2010

On AT&T's new data tethering

For all the fuss about AT&T's new data rates (both pragmatically good and knee-jerk bad) the main point to keep in mind is whether those rates are actually good for consumers. For the most part, they are: John Gruber notes in his post that 98% of AT&T's users fall below the new 2GB monthly plan, and that even with overages these rates beat the competition.

datausage.pngI'm a daily, heavy user of data on my iPhone 3GS, so I logged into my phone bill to see where I land. And lo, a surprise: not only do I not need unlimited data, I can actually drop down to the 250MB plan. Because I regularly use my home and work wifi, and I don't download much media, my 3G bandwidth usage has been 230MB or less for the past six months.

I like the idea of an open meter, and when I change plans, I'll probably switch to the 2GB/month plan, even if it costs me a few bucks extra. I will be happier paying $25/month and never hitting my limit than paying $15/month and worrying about, or getting slapped with, overages when I download some videos. Still, that's found money for me, and for 98% of AT&T's smartphone users.

One could gripe all day about AT&T's signal strength or its needlessly expensive text messaging plans. But its data plans are well considered and decently consumer-friendly, no matter how the blogosphere reacts.

May 4, 2010

Relativity in oil

BP appropriately announced Monday that it will bear the full expense of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill cleanup. The cost estimates at this point run past $12.5 billion.

Analysts are wondering if BP will really be on the hook for the full amount, or whether the British government will help with payments to not overburden one of the country's biggest companies. But BP can handle it: the oil giant's net profits for 2009 were $20.1 billion. With nearly $30 billion in free cash flow, the cleanup, even if paid in full in 2010, would be a manageable sum. It won't help profits, but it won't sink BP, either.

Kudos, then, to BP for bearing responsibility and leading containment efforts. One would hope and expect as much from an oil company that touts alternative fuels.

Update: while my appreciation from a financial effort was nice, there's still a mess of oil to clean up, and not surprisingly BP is facing heat for the intensity and quality of its actions. Here's to hoping for some fast successes.

May 3, 2010

The ROI of transparency

From my post on aiaio:

Suddenly the question shifts from cagey profiteering back to trust. As the questioner remarks, if the patient (client, party-thrower, CPG marketing manager) trusts the adviser, the recommendation of a related business can be more trustworthy, not less.
Posted without further comment except to publicly note my love for the Ethicist.

February 15, 2010

The ROI of UX: Continental Airlines

From my post on aiaio:

Yes, there are premium seats available; no, you can't have them. I asked if I could pay extra to reserve those seats: no. I asked if I could get a seat assignment, any seat assignment, so I knew I would make it on the plane: no. I eventually gave up my attempts to cajole customer service into helping me, and after a few hours of deliberation, I took my business elsewhere.

My story isn't all that uncommon, but it still strikes me as a miss on Continental's part. Why must they hold a random middle seat for an unbooked elite member, thereby denying a paying customer a chance to confirm travel?

Between this and Continental's other discomforts—a small 31" seat pitch in coach; 60,000 miles to book coach-class reward travel—I haven't flown CO in more than five years. In the interim I've been on American, JetBlue, Virgin Atlantic, Northwest, Alitalia, Midwest, US Airways, United and Virgin America, and I've enjoyed all of them more than I enjoy my typical interaction with Continental. (Well, maybe not Alitalia.)

January 16, 2010

Duane Reade, testing customer loyalty

From my post on aiaio:

The new program is more confusing and far less valuable. Consumers now get two points per dollar spent and the same $5 reward now comes at 500 points. Or, in layman's terms, after $250 spent rather than $100. Earning the five bucks just became two and a half times as difficult.
My wife and I probably spend around $1000 a year at Duane Reade. With our normal memory patterns (read Amy doesn't use the loyalty card very often) we got $40 in store credit last year, and were eligible for $50: not bad for just showing up. Now that $1000 spend is worth just $20 in reward dollars, or $10-15 when we factor in the days we forget to use the card.

Ten bucks a year is below my worth-the-trouble threshold, so I'm basically done with the rewards card. I wonder how much less I'll look to DR as my default convenience store as a result.

January 6, 2010

Why the Nexus One isn't exciting

From my post on aiaio:

In partnering with HTC, a company that produces cell phones for every US carrier and two different operating systems, Google ceded control of the overall experience. Never mind that the handset is slim and fairly attractive. It's also generic, and apparently imperfect. When David Pogue pushes your phone's home button, you really don't want it to fail.

There's a huge difference between designing and engineering a device, as Apple did with the iPhone and Palm with the Pre, and a company having a device "built to its specifications". Google was telling HTC, "We want our phone to do this," and HTC was putting the requisite componentry in place. This tends to minimize holistic product definition and by its very nature waters down the innovation. In contrast, Palm and Apple (and Motorola and Nokia, for that matter) manage the entire process, and their software is designed to complement the hardware, maximizing user experience. Google, a company that is strictly virtual, doesn't know how to do this.
Apple completely reengineered the UI of mobile telephony with the iPhone. Visual voice mail. Screen-based keyboard. Multi-touch interface. The list goes on and on. Google, in contrast, is very "me too" at this point in its phone development cycle. It will be interesting to see if Google follows the Microsoft model and finds nirvana in its third or fourth release.

November 12, 2009

On taste

Maclaren is recalling a million strollers after receiving 12 reports of children slicing off part of their fingers in the side hinges of numerous models.

The recall form for ordering new hinge covers is online. The last item in the form is an opt-out to avoid joining the Maclaren email marketing database. Oh my.

maclarenform.png

November 11, 2009

Everything old is new again: Facebook and AOL

Steve Rubel: Five Incredibly Useful Things You Can Do Without Ever Leaving Facebook. "I am discovering that it's becoming a one-stop shop for many of my day-to-day activities," he writes.

The post strikes me as a retrograde observation. Not because Steve Rubel is any kind of Luddite, but because the online industry has, for more than 20 years, been trying to create a one-size-fits-all website. It still is. Indeed, it seems every big site aims to recapture the glory days of America Online.

In the 1980s, Compuserve and Prodigy and the like created online dialup communities. The winner in this space, of course, was AOL, which dominated for years. It became a destination for users and businesses alike. Every company in America needed an AOL presence and someone who could code in Rainman.

As the web's ubiquity overtook AOL, websites began cropping up that attempted to reinvent the paradigm by ... emulating AOL. Yahoo and MSN (and many smaller peers) created integrated online presences where features and options abounded and stickiness became the prime measurement.

Then search came to prominence and splintered people's site use. Google's success as an ad platform allowed Google Labs to create dozens of experimental services, all of which served to make Google more of a catch-all, and more like ... the old, closed-wall AOL, just with outbound links.

Which brings us to 2009, where Facebook has captured the exact same mindspace as, yep, AOL. What makes Facebook interesting these days? Basically the same things that made AOL a star a decade earlier.

  • private messaging without an external email client: just like AOL!
  • live chat: just like AOL!
  • integrated games and shopping: just like AOL!
  • every company feels a need to be there: just like AOL!
And here we are again, with consumers converging on a single site and companies clamoring to capture their attention.

AOL was eventually done in by a lack of openness and charging for options that were free elsewhere. So far, Facebook has avoided those mistakes. It will be interesting to see what social and economic forces drive its future--and whether it ultimately becomes something other than The Next AOL.

This is a cross-post from aiaio.

September 25, 2009

Knowing your audience

The little coffee shop on West 21st Street has, dangling under its potato chip rack, a row of flip-flops.

I pointed to them today as I bought my pretzels. "Sell a lot of flip-flops?" I asked the owner, an affable woman who's always manning the register.

"You know, we open sometimes on Saturday nights, when the weather's cool," she explained to me. "And all the clubs around here, they don't let women in wearing flats. So all these girls come out after wearing their heels all night, and they say to me, 'Do you have flip-flops? I'd pay anything for a pair of flip-flops!'

"So, we got some flip-flops. I know how they feel--I once spent $20 on flip-flops after a night like that. But they're all college girls, you know? I don't want to rip them off, so I just charge five dollars."

Have your customers voiced unexpected needs to you? How are you solving their problems?

This is a cross-post from aiaio.

June 14, 2009

Pronounced "Baw-st'n"

As mentioned on the business end of things, I'm in Boston at the Internet Retailer Conference & Expo, culminating in my presenting at the conference Wednesday afternoon. It's great to be back in town--with the exception of a six-hour business meeting in January, I haven't spent any time in Beantown in nearly a decade. We took advantage tonight, eating at a local restaurant in the North End, and I have plans to see at least one old friend before I leave town.

Massachusetts always strikes a great note with me. The history, the architecture, the weather: everything is the way I like it. A lifetime of summer visits to Cape Ann (and, more recently, Martha's Vineyard) has certainly influenced me. And even though I'm a Yankee fan in the Red Sox's backyard, it just feels good to be here.

April 23, 2009

Was Geocities worth it?

With Yahoo closing Geocities, I analyzed the impact of the original acquisition for the Ai blog. Was the sale worth it? Short answer: a very qualified yes, but more from a corporate perspective than a financial one. Take a look. (And let me know if I'm wrong.)

April 3, 2009

Tropicana feels it where it counts

In the wake of Tropicana's disastrous rebranding over the winter, its sales plummeted 20 percent in six weeks. Twenty percent in six weeks!

That's a disaster on a monumental scale for a brand this size--$33 million in lost sales, plus the millions of dollars in designing, packaging and marketing the new designs, and the funds to clean up the mess.

The sales news also sheds new light on the decision to switch the packaging back, which at the time was called a "deep emotional bond" among Tropicana consumers. Indeed, the exact opposite was true: without the logo, people assumed their juice was gone, and simply bought something else. Neil Campbell, call your public relations department. (via kottke.org and df)

March 4, 2009

On landing a job

How to Get Hired on aiaio, the Ai blog.

I have long been an observer, commentator and course-corrector when it comes to job interviews. Many moons ago I published a series of job-hunt best practices in this space. Titled "Interdon't," many of my pointers are just as relevant today as they were a decade ago.

I am continually amazed by the flagrant violations of basic job-search protocol. Among the things I've seen the past two weeks:

  • Cover letters with our company name in a different font, copy-pasted
  • Saying "this position is a great fit" while having a background in, say, high finance
  • Chatty letters with no resumes attached
  • Emailed resumes with no accompanying text at all
People expect to (and do) land work like this? How? I suppose they're hired by people with similar approaches, but that's not me.

Anyway, read the two links above if you're looking for a job, and good luck in your search.

February 23, 2009

Tropicana and branding

I have been complaining in this space for several months about the awful redesign of Tropicana's packaging. It screamed change for change's sake, and truly felt designed without regard for brand strength or visibility.

Old and new Tropicana cartonsWho at Pepsi possibly thought 12-point sans-serif product descriptions were better than the large, color-coordinated pulp and acidity indicators? Or that a sea of orange juice was more eye-catching and unique than fruit with straws? Or that Tropicana's logo just had to be updated? The new stuff was pretty, sure, but entirely generic and unusable.

Tropicana wisely backtracked this weekend and is reverting to its old packaging. The company cited consumer feedback as the driver, which is nice to see. But its spin completely missed the point.

"We underestimated the deep emotional bond," said Tropicana's president, Neil Campbell. "What we didn't get was the passion this very loyal small group of consumers have."

This is false. As a loyal Tropicana buyer, I don't love the straw-punctured fruit or the old logo at all. What I love is Tropicana juice. And the new packaging made it hard for me to buy it. My preference was hidden in small type; the cartons no longer differentiated on the shelves. It took me longer to shop, and twice this winter I went home with the wrong juice. I'm glad they're reverting but not for the reasons they see (or admit).

One thing hasn't changed, though: Tropicana Pure Premium is great orange juice. Thank goodness they didn't mess with that.

February 18, 2009

GM and Chrysler deserve nothing

Here's the thing about the latest auto industry bailout pleas: only under extreme duress are General Motors and Chrysler are making changes to their business plans. And only under the guise of getting more cash are they coming up with them.

I don't want to see large-scale industrial failure any more than the next guy. But these companies do not deserve Federal assistance. They have proven for decades that their businesses are myopic and wholly resistant to change. While the rest of the world's automakers adapted and excelled, Detroit was relying on focus groups, creating redundant models, ignoring macroeconomic and environmental trends, and overpaying employees.

The net result is companies that need overhauls and closures. Market forces should create the necessary change. Another $14 billion will only continue the status quo, which is akin to giving a drug addict just a bit more of his drugs in the hope he'll figure out how to get clean if he's given just a little more time. It won't work.

GM in particular has busted its model by overdoing just about everything, starting with a proliferation of models. Take a look at model lineups in 1959, during its heyday:

  • Chevrolet: 8 including trucks (Bel Air, Biscayne, Impala, Corvette, Kingswood, El Camino, Suburban, Parkwood)
  • Pontiac: 3 (Bonneville, Catalina, star Chief)
  • Buick: 2 (Electra, Invicta)
  • Cadillac: 3 (DeVille, Eldorado, Fleetwood)

That's 16 car models in total across their four major brands. Today Chevy has 15 models, Pontiac 7, Cadillac 6 and Buick 3--a total of 31 car lines, nearly twice as many models for less than half the market share. And that's excluding Saturn and GMC, which heavily rebrand GM platforms for even more product lines. You'd think over the past, say, 15 years GM would realize it's doing things wrong and try some fresh tactics. None ever came.

So add me to the list of "let 'em fail" naysayers. I'd like to see Detroit's stalwarts continue to make cars, but only compelling concepts with strong identities that would actually have me consider buying one.

The potential ripple effects are frightening, but more bailout money will only delay the inevitable. Better to swallow hard and work on a Plan B.

February 17, 2009

On reconnecting

I've been on a reconnecting kick lately, and I've been diligently finding and reaching out to old colleagues on Facebook and LinkedIn (situationally dictated, of course).

It's an interesting time to do so: I'm not looking for a job, although several of the people in my network are. Yet I wonder what my interest in connecting--now--says to my former coworkers and contacts.

Typically, building out one's social network happens in two phases: in a big blur when first joining a network, and again a few months later as momentum builds. I've been on Facebook a long while now, though, and my LinkedIn profile dates all the way to 2003.

Why, then, am I reaching out now? Curiosity and comprehensiveness, mostly. That's how I see it. But how do, say, my old Economist cubicle-mates read it? Am I hoping to hit them up for job leads? Ecommerce outsourcing opportunities? What might I want?

The truth is liberating enough, so I'm tick-ticking through my old names, building out my contacts as best I can. I've even updated my LinkedIn status line to indicate that I'm actually sourcing talent, not joining its pool. That plus a few lunches should go a long way. Besides, I'm an easy sell on lunch. Busy next week?

December 24, 2008

On being the bully (and a solution)

I was never much of a physical force growing up. Slowest in the 440 at school, always a few pounds overweight, I was more of a thinker, and made my way by being clever and omniscient, not all-powerful.

Which is why sometimes it's hard for me to root for the New York Yankees. I get tired of seeing them outspend the league, overspend on players, and basically pummel the free agent market into submission every winter. Defending my team's actions is tiresome, particularly since I don't always agree with the maneuvers, despite being a loyal fan for 30 years.

More importantly, where has it gotten them? The most-expensive-ever Yankees of this season are the first in 13 years to miss the playoffs. The Yanks of the late 1990s achieved four World Series championships in five years with a foundation of homegrown talent. Since then the Yankees have proved (like the Orioles did a decade earlier) that a team can't simply buy a championship.

The Yanks are determined to try, which is fine. But what particularly galls me is the level of disparity. Their 2008 payroll was 51% higher than the second-highest team and 140% more than the league average. I don't exactly dislike the Yanees' ability to spend, but come on. The system is surely broken that their budget can be $209 million when the average team is spending $90 million.

Major League Baseball needs to reconcile the Yankees' payroll in a way that simultaneously appeases the players' association and other owners. So the Yanks paid $26 million in revenue-sharing: that's barely 12% of payroll, and didn't slow them at all. At the same time, MLB must also continue to address parity; the Florida Marlins' $22 million payroll, at 10% of the Yankees', is equally embarrassing.

In lieu of a hard salary cap, which will be too hard to fit into baseball's current economic model, perhaps a tether is in order. What if the maximum spend were set at, say, 200% of the previous year's median? That would give wealthier teams room to pay, while preserving a realistic upper limit. It would allow the less wealthy teams to spend less, as is their wont. It might also realign teams' responsibilities--the Yankees would suddenly have tens of millions of dollars of their own money freed up for other things. Like paying for their new stadium without begging for more public funds.

Last year's median spend was approximately $80 million (between the Brewers' $81 million and the Indians' $79 million). If the tether were in place, the cap for the 2009 season would be $160 million. That's more than $21 million higher than the payroll of every other team in baseball, but a good $40 million below the Yankees' expectations. It would have allowed them to sign CC Sabathia or Mark Teixeira or A.J. Burnett but probably not all three. Which in turn would put, say, Teixeira in Washington, boosting the Nationals' payroll by $20 million, which raises the median price, bumping the 2010 tether, and so on.

This is just one of many ideas, and it may not get noticed beyond this blog. But it would sure be nice to do something about this imbalance. Because like the bully in many a Hollywood tale, the Yankees keep proving that might does not make right. A little fiscal restraint might do them, and the rest of baseball, some good.

October 20, 2008

On performance reviews

Get Rid of the Performance Review! in the Wall Street Journal tackles the outmoded concept of one-way personnel assessments. In it, Samuel Culbert makes the case that reviews slow productivity and breed animosity in ways that are not particularly useful. Employee "previews" are suggested as an alternative.

But a far better mechanism already exists: the employee-led performance review. Staff are given blank assessment sheets and write objective reports of themselves. These are then shared with management; the boss leads a sit-down session to discuss areas agreed upon as well as areas omitted by the employee.

I've been giving and receiving self-administered performance reviews for years and see many benefits. Employees are often more critical of themselves than their managers. They encourage improvement even before the face-to-face review begins. The process also eliminates the one-sidedness of employer reviews, because the process begins with a dialogue rather than a directive.

Some organizations do two-sided assessments, which is even better: employee fills out a form, employer fills out the same form, then both sides review the two sheets together. This provides great momentum for consensus-building and easily identified goals. It also clarifies why areas are included or excluded by either party (e.g. "I hadn't mentioned my early Friday departures because I thought my late nights offset them... I'm glad you highlighted this as something that's important to the company.").

My current employer has begun managerial reviews, which is an interesting twist: we've got one-way reports, but they're up the chain of command instead of down, so I've been reviewed by a project manager and am scheduled to review the president. I was reluctant to do them at first, and now I know why: they are the one-side-accountable, administered/received reviews outlined in the WSJ article. Fortunately, bubble-up reviews work differently--they've been excellent sessions of constructive criticism and a good chance to think objectively about peers. Very useful for continued personal growth, particularly in a small company.

August 4, 2008

An open letter to Biscuits and Bath

Dear Biscuits and Bath:

"I didn't make her cry. She chose to cry."

This is what I was told by the manager of the 13th Street Biscuits and Bath when I asked him why my wife had just left your store in tears. She had asked him why Biscuits and Bath called our vet for vaccine information without informing or asking us, then contacted us anxiously three times in a week leading up to our grooming last Saturday. The manager, John, was aggressively unapologetic, and suggested "this isn't the place for you" anymore.

This would be an uneventful customer service story if it weren't endemic to our experience with you. Having found a great dog groomer, we dealt with error after insult for more than three years, figuring a happy, handsome dog outweighed the nuisances. Among them:

  • On at least three occasions, our appointment time was moved without our knowledge. More than once we found out we had a new time less than 24 hours before the appointment.
  • Twice the staff failed to inform us in advance when our groomer's schedule changed, leaving us to arrive at the store for a nonexistent appointment.
  • The groomer regularly got double- and triple-booked by the main office, leading to our dog being trapped for hours on end. Customer service once told me, "You're the only 9 a.m. tomorrow," only for me to be the second 9 a.m. appointment to arrive, moments ahead of a 9:15. Our poor groomer was often harried first thing in the morning.
  • Despite repeated calls to the company, customer service representatives refused to escalate any complaints. Management is completely opaque--when I asked John the store manager for his boss's name, John flatly refused to tell me.
This culminated in Saturday's incident, where Amy, looking for answers, was instead told to take her business elsewhere, and my attempt at resolution was met with the quote at the top of this letter and a threat to call the police. I left your store wondering if other Biscuits and Bath customers have had similar problems, and sure enough, the posters at Yelp and Citysearch tell more of these tales. One saga on Yelp sounds almost exactly like ours.

I'm also wondering if other Biscuits and Bath patrons would frequent the store if they really saw what went on there. How the 13th Street location packs 30 or more large dogs into an 800-square-foot space in the name of exercise. How the smallest dogs sit alone and unstimulated in the front of the store, often lying in their own urine. How a dog died last year while supposedly under active monitoring. In a way, I'm glad we were asked not to return--I will miss our groomer, but I have momentum to take my business to a more reputable establishment.

Of course, there are two sides to every story. No doubt if you were to reply, you'd cite how we became upset at your staff's insistent phone calls, and how we often bristled at waiting three hours while our triple-booked groomer took care of our dog. And how I used foul language after John the manager sneered at the suggestion he did something wrong. All we wanted was a pleasant, hassle-free trip to the groomer every month. We rarely got it.

The unprofessionalism at Biscuits and Bath suggests a business that should be running into the ground. Somehow smart marketing positions it as a premier, high-quality dog care establishment. In the process, you seem to have forgotten about the service and operations that go into a well-run store.

I hope someone at Biscuits and Bath reads this letter and acts upon the many flaws in this business. But I'm not expecting much. Your true reputation precedes you.

July 9, 2008

Update: slippery slope

I noted in this space in March JetBlue's potential for evolving away from its roots with its new seat pricing plan.

Well, not only has the option to create a First Class cabin been raised, but my concern about the $10 legroom seat was accurate: booking a flight yesterday, I discovered that the premium row had quite suddenly become a $30 upgrade each way. I'm all for airlines making money, but JetBlue tripled its surcharge in three months, and the $60 upgrade amounted to 15% of the cost of my ticket.

If Virgin America offered more than 32" of seat pitch (or a more affordable business class cabin) I might have switched airlines. Which is the last thing JetBlue needs from its loyal customers.

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dash of sarcasm

The history
The Ideapad debuted on November 1, 1998 and has been through numerous incarnations through the years. It is now a weblog and personal journal.
Once upon a time I wrote Usability: The Site Speaks for Itself (Publisher's page / Amazon.com)
Once in a whenever I consult as User Savvy (dormant)
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